Just over ten years ago, I wrote a biography of the British diplomat and writer, Harold Nicolson. Nicolson was an acknowledged expert on the theory and practice of diplomacy. In his 1939 study of the subject, called simply ‘Diplomacy’, he wrote:
“The dangers of vanity in a negotiator can scarcely be exaggerated. It tempts him to disregard the advice or opinions of those who may have longer experience of a country, or of a problem, than he possesses himself. It renders him vulnerable to the flattery of those with whom he is negotiating.”
The barb was aimed at Neville Chamberlain, of whose conduct over Munich in 1938 Nicolson was deeply critical. It could equally be aimed at Donald Trump, who has made no secret of the fact that he wants the Nobel Peace Prize.
That the United States should eventually decide to leave Europe to manage its own defence was probably inevitable. Of course, that isn’t what is being said publicly, but it is clearly the course that has been set. From a US point of view there is some logic to it. It is 80 years since the end of the Second World War and the birth of NATO. The rise of China as an economic and military power is inevitably distracting the United States from affairs in Europe. In the long run, it may well be better for Europe to rely less on the United States and more on its own resources. That is a subject for another day.
But the way Trump and his men are forcing the issue is damaging Europe politically and diplomatically. In the first place, it is happening too publicly and too quickly. Sidelining European nations and ignoring their concerns over the Russia-Ukraine war can only damage relations between the US and Europe, especially with the extra bombshell of trade tariffs thrown in. Trump is effectively saying to Putin: “Europe doesn’t count”, which can only weaken Europe’s position in relation to Russia. And J.D.Vance’s hypocritical rant about free speech at the recent security conference in Munich can only have confirmed that view.
It is not only Europe that is being sidelined. Ukraine is not being asked to participate in talks about its own future. The last time that happened was – guess when? – Munich in 1938, when Britain and France negotiated with Hitler over Czechoslovakia without involving the Czechs.
More damaging still is that Trump’s decision to start negotiations, and the way he has gone about it, is actively strengthening Putin’s hand both internationally and domestically. Many commentators have already pointed out that by saying that Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia and will not be given NATO membership, the US has given away two of its best cards before even sitting down at the poker table.
Worst of all, Trump has given the Russian people proof that what Putin has said all along has been correct. Despite sanctions, despite economic problems, despite having to seek ammunition and troops from North Korea, Putin has consistently maintained that the West would blink first, that the West would lose the will to fight. Now he has been proved right. Instead of the war being the beginning of the end for Putin, instead of being a stick with which what remains of the opposition can beat him, it has suddenly become a strength. He will soon be transformed into a Russian hero.
The subtext of all this is that Europe understands that any peace in Ukraine can only be temporary while Putin remains in power. By contrast, Trump understands that as long as any deal he strikes with Putin can be made to look like peace, he stands a chance of the Nobel Prize.
