I am a retiree in my sixties, having spent most of my career as a senior NHS manager and CEO. Politically, I am in the centre ground and have never been a member of a political party. I was a committed European and, as such, the 2016 Referendum result, and the way the vote was won, disappointed me greatly.
I have watched the last 12 years of the Tory party leadership with deep concern. Austerity always felt wrong to me. The NHS was forced to reduce spending in real terms (as were other public services) and staff were put under more and more pressure as demand kept rising. Service delivery suffered as a consequence.
Since 2016 I have taken more interest in politics. I have not joined a party, but have become very active on social media, specifically on Twitter.
The following is based on some tweets I posted on 28 September 2022; the editor of West Country Voices asked me to turn them into an article. Inevitably the politics have moved on at some pace since posting!
Has the Tory party been taken over by a cult?
As time goes on, Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng have doubled down on their announcements in the ‘mini-budget’ launched on Friday, September 23.
For the record, Parliament had no say on this ‘fiscal event’ . This was government by pronouncement, something Johnson started and Truss will continue, if allowed. It is a deliberate strategy to avoid Parliamentary scrutiny (although some elements will require MPs’ approval, it is believed that the government will try and ensure some elements do not go to a parliamentary vote).
Truss and Kwarteng are doubling down because they believe that they are right and all the experts who were horrified by the various announcements are wrong. What is more, it has become clear over the last several hours that even some of their own MPs are unhappy and have taken to social media to say so.
The first instinct of Truss and Kwarteng was to double down. Most governments do that, but I would suggest that the reactions of both the markets and sterling would have set warning bells ringing with previous governments. Not with this one.
Why was that?
In Britannia Unchained (2012), a book to which both Kwarteng and Truss contributed, the main theme was the need to reduce the state and, where possible, have the private sector run public services. It’s pretty much a right-wing agenda, one that’s not particularly new (think Reaganomics) but which was given a big oxygen boost by Trump. It’s very much the agenda of the ERG (European Research Group), a subset of the Tory Party with a membership of around 100 MPs.
As the doubling down continued it became clear that the government was demanding that spending departments (Health, Local Govt, Justice etc) quickly produce efficiency savings.
All the experts were saying that the only way the Government could offset the enormous borrowing proposed would be to reduce the size of the state by making cuts in public spending. The Government counter-claimed that their growth plan would reduce the need to cut public spending. The experts were not convinced that the growth government predicted could be achieved.
Only a few well-known right-wing economists backed the government’s approach.
What is really going on here?
The growth announcements in the ‘mini-budget’, the tax cuts and borrowing requirements, were, according to most commentators, always going to lead to more austerity due to a need for cuts in public spending.
You might conclude that given what we know from Britannia Unchained this was all carefully planned. I believe it was. Others believe it was just misjudgements and lack of political statecraft, a case of conspiracy versus ‘cock-up’.
If it was planned, we are dealing with a group of people who have seized the reins of power via a mid-term change of Prime Minister chosen by a tiny group of people – 81,000 odd party members. The ERG backed Truss over all the other candidates. She wasn’t the first choice of a majority of Tory MPs and her majority in the party-wide vote was not exactly resounding.
These people are not stupid. Kwarteng, for example, has a PhD in Economic History. It’s not hard to work out that the ‘mini-budget’ was carefully crafted to ensure justification for cuts in public spending, thus implementing the ideas set out in Britannia Unchained.
In conclusion
My conclusion is that we are dealing with people who have a clear agendaand who display cult-like responses to challenge. They double down, telling us all that they are right, and we are wrong. They make use of their friends in the media to spread their propaganda and call on experts who have limited credibility within their own profession.
I don’t think they are worried about the General Election in two years because they believe that by then the economy will have turned around and they will have persuaded everyone that their way is right. More cultish thinking, or, in this case, rainbow-chasing optimism.
It’s worth noting that Truss, while a student at Oxford, was apparently well known for refusing to change her view on something even in the face of clear evidence to the contrary.
Trump and Truss have many things in common. Trump is well known for rarely accepting correction by anyone else. He is right, you are wrong. More importantly, look at the changes he managed to impose on the USA through executive orders. Biden has been unable to reverse all of them and the damage has been done. I say ‘damage’: one has to remember that people like Trump and Truss don’t see it as damage.
How do we deal with this?
So, how do we deal with this if we accept this analysis?
First, we need to understand the Truss-Kwarteng world view and what drives them. They simply don’t want the state in their lives – no regulation, no welfare state, no collective bargaining, no workers’ rights, no human rights etc. Just free markets. Yes, I am simplifying, but the bottom line is that it’s all about unrestrained capitalism where an elite group will run (and own!) the country, and everyone else will do as they are told.
Second, we need to recognise that no amount of facts and expert opinions will shift them from their view. Challenge them with logic and facts and they just say, ‘you are wrong’. That doesn’t mean they should not be called out. It’s important to continue to stick to our values and tell truth to power.
Third, be aware that if Truss survives this week, she will either keep doubling down or move just enough to survive. But the fact is that cults do not give up easily on their agenda.
Fourth, it seems that some Tory MPs are breaking ranks. They need to be encouraged and supported in this. Somehow the Conservative party has been taken over by a group with cultish tendencies.
As I write today the polls are indicating that the party could face decimation if an election were called tomorrow, winning fewer than 100 seats. That’s not necessarily good for democracy. We need at least two political parties from which to choose our representatives so that the country has some choice.
Finally, my hope is that when the Tory party realises that it has been infiltrated and deals with the issue, we can return to a place where politics is about debate, argument and listening to the other side, without saying it’s rubbish before people have even opened their mouths.
If those of us who wanted to stay in the EU had listened more carefully before the referendum, rather than just assuming a majority thought like us, then we might be in a different place.
Listening attentively is such an important part of our lives. We need this skill right now and your Conservative MP definitely does. Let them know now that you are unhappy so they can use their in-boxes to tackle the party whips.
