The question they couldn’t answer: what does LEAVE mean?

๐——๐—”๐—ง๐—˜๐—Ÿ๐—œ๐—ก๐—˜ ๐—™๐—˜๐—•๐—ฅ๐—จ๐—”๐—ฅ๐—ฌ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฒ: Hereโ€™s a question for you, I wrote in my report of February 2016:

โ€˜๐—ช๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฑ ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚ ๐—บ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜ ๐—ธ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜„๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜…๐˜ ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฒ ๐—น๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ๐˜€ ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ธ๐—ฒ?โ€™

No, me neither.

But thatโ€™s what those campaigning for Britain to leave the EU were expecting voters to do โ€“ vote to end our membership of the EU without knowing what weโ€™d have instead.

The problem LEAVERS had is that they simply didnโ€™t know, and for sure they couldnโ€™t agree.

As a result, two rival, irreconcilable โ€˜Leaveโ€™ campaigns were launched in the run-up to the referendum:

UKIPโ€™s leader, Nigel Farage, supported one (Leave.EU) and UKIPโ€™s then only MP, Douglas Carswell, supported the other (Vote Leave).

And as confirmed by the Financial Times in February 2016, the two ‘leave’ campaigns were in disarray.

โ–ช ๐—ข๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฒ ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ, ๐— ๐—ฟ ๐—™๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น ๐—ถ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฝ ๐—˜๐—จ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜๐˜€ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—•๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป.

โ–ช ๐—ข๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ, ๐— ๐—ฟ ๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜€๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ-๐˜€๐˜๐˜†๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—น ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—•๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป, ๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ป ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป.

Instead of Britain leaving the EU, these two prominent members of UKIP seemed to be putting the case for leaving each other.

Or as the Financial Times put it at the time:

โ€œIt is not just a matter of discordant personalities. Out campaigners have struggled to unite around a single vision of what Britainโ€™s post-Brexit trading arrangements would look like.โ€

And this was the core problem for the LEAVERS โ€“ their Achilles heel. Explained the FT:

โ€œThey have also failed to provide a convincing explanation of how leaving the EU would give the British greater control over their destiny and improved economic prospects.

โ€œThis is not surprising because none of the models that is mooted for a future outside the EU is convincing.โ€

If Eurosceptics couldnโ€™t even agree among themselves what it meant for Britain to leave the European Union, it seemed a bit rich to expect that voters would know.

They didnโ€™t know because the LEAVERS didnโ€™t know.

As I concluded in my report of February 2016:

โ€˜๐—ข๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜€, ๐—œ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ปโ€™๐˜ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜†๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜ƒ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—Ÿ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ. ๐—ข๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ฝ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—˜๐—จ ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ; ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด (๐˜„๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฒ ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ต๐˜ ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ผ๐˜€๐—ฒ) ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ด๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ฑ.โ€™

The problem, of course, is that Leavers didnโ€™t have any choice of what version of Brexit they would get when they voted on 23 June 2016.

That wasnโ€™t decided until three years later โ€“ decided by the government, that is, and not by us, โ€˜the peopleโ€™.