Those who remember the 1960s and 70s may recall a Soviet leader called Leonid Brezhnev. He began with the iron fist that was expected of Soviet rulers, but his grip on power began to slip after he suffered a heart attack in 1975, and his health progressively deteriorated until his death in 1982. By the end, his public appearances were almost inanimate, but he could not stand down until the competition for his succession played out. In the event, a number of potential successors died before he did. Eventually, his death became unavoidable and Yuri Andropov, previously head of the KGB, was elected.
Are we watching something similar with Donald Trump? His speeches are increasingly incoherent, his thought processes increasingly disjointed and his actions increasingly personally vindictive. With growing signs of mental decline, when will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked (always assuming that the US Constitution is still considered relevant)?
“Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.”
This first part of the Section refers to a situation in which the incapacity is unambiguous; the assassination of J F Kennedy comes to mind. However, the second paragraph addresses the additional situation, in which a President may have undergone major surgery and is recovering, or the situation in which a President is simply losing is mental faculties.
“Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.”
Section 4, 25th Amendment to the US Constitution
It is very difficult to imagine that Trump would simply acquiesce to being told that he is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”. Therefore, the second provision would apply, requiring that two thirds of both the Senate and House of Representatives would need to agree in a vote. Given the current state of Congress, and virtual unanimous Republican support when the whip is applied, this is unlikely, since Republicans hold an outright majority in both houses. The 100 members of the Senate are divided 53:47 and the 435 members of the House of Representatives are divided 219:212. To reach the two thirds figure would require 20 Republican Senators to vote against the President and 70 Members of Congress. Clearly, this will not happen unless something of truly catastrophic proportions becomes an issue.
Of the current preoccupations in the US, only one looks as though it might have that overriding importance. MAGA’s hardcore supporters seem willing to accept:
- occupation of Washington DC by National Guardsmen of former Confederate states (something the Confederacy never managed to achieve);
- setting up America’s version of the Gestapo to hunt down “immigrants”;
- requiring the Smithsonian to rewrite history, including not mentioning “how bad” slavery was;
- undermining alliances with allies by parroting the arguments of Vladimir Putin and
- placing a tariff wall, which will inevitably raise prices.
However, the release of the Epstein files, and exposure of those who were clients, has long been a focus for MAGA loyalists and appears to be the one issue that they will not overlook: hence the continuous series of distractions that have appeared in recent weeks. It is conceivable that a significant portion of Trump’s supporters would turn on him if the story continues to gain traction (with J D Vance’s gentle stirring keeping the story alive) and it becomes patently evident that Trump is directly implicated, notwithstanding the determined apathy of the mainstream media, and Ghislaine Maxwell’s sworn statement exonerating him. The prospect of the loss of one of the key Republican voting communities might be sufficient to cause Republican Senators and Members of the House to consider where their own future interests lie. Almost inevitably, the beneficiary is the current Vice President, J D Vance.
The other consideration is that the mid term elections are due in November next year. All of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of those in the Senate (22 currently Republican and 13 Democrat) will be up for election – hence the desperate focus on redistricting.
States are represented by two members of the Senate and a number of members of the House in proportion to their population. As a result, although California and Wyoming both send two Senators, Wyoming (and a number of other less populous states) sends one Representative while California sends 52 and Texas sends 38. It will immediately be apparent why the arguments about “redistricting” (or gerrymandering to redraw boundaries to maximise the electoral chances of one party) are focused on Texas and California.
The real issue is whether the coalition of Trump supporters will hold together until the end of next year. Even with prices spiralling and employment falling, it is unlikely that the Democrats could achieve a two thirds majority in both houses but it is possible that fractures may open up among Republican supporters. How long can the religious right tolerate the close association with Epstein? How long can ethnic minorities vote for an increasingly white supremacist party? And how long can so many women vote for a future bit part in the Handmaid’s Tale. On the other hand, the Trump family, climate change deniers (supported by fossil fuel companies), white supremacists and the many billionaires are unlikely to waver: they have too much at stake.
Plan B, of course, is simply to defer the elections.
And just suppose that Trump is quietly confined to Mar-a-Lago and the golf course – what then? J D Vance is heir presumptive. The evidence suggests that he is closely aligned with the views of the Heritage foundation, a conservative think-tank, in the US. We have seen his tact, charm and diplomacy when he has met European leaders, for example at the Munich conference in February and when he effectively mugged President Zelenskyy during a televised meeting in the Oval Office. And we have seen those who called on him in the Cotswolds during his recent visit to the UK. This seems to suggest that policy would not change much. The United States would continue on a right-wing course, following an isolationist diplomatic line and cutting itself off from the world economy behind a tariff wall. Making America Great Again may come at a considerable cost. And the reckoning may come when the United States next calls for the support of allies, who may feel that it no longer shares their values.