May Puckey is a 17-year-old from East Devon who is passionate about the environment and politics. We are very keen to encourage young citizen journalists, so please get in touch if you want to have your writing considered for publication.
The media has focused on what Donald Trump’s second term of office as president will mean for many different issues, but how will having the world’s biggest climate denier, who describes climate change as “one of the greatest scams of all time”, affect the climate crisis?
Donald Trump’s presidency will last until 2029, nearing the end of a decade the IPCC described as fundamental for preventing economic breakdown. Scientists think that 2024 will breach the 1.5 degree pre-industrial warming target (which it is believed will result in disaster for life on the planet as we know it). Trump’s presidency will start at a time when we are already far behind where we need to be in terms of preventing the climate breakdown.
Many people are concerned that Trump’s pledges generally – though specifically on the climate crisis – are even more extreme this time around. Barry Rabe, an energy policy expert at the University of Michigan, said that
“The indifference to empirical evidence and the bold sweeping gestures is familiar but this sequel will be an aggressive, revenge-based repudiation of anyone who has ever challenged him in the past”.
Trump has not only been denying the climate crisis, but has also been actively mocking it, stating that rising sea levels will “create more oceanfront property”. He also falsely claimed that “2024 has been cooler than previous years”, despite scientists from the IPCC predicting it will replace 2023 as the warmest year on record. Therefore, there is much concern that Trump’s aggressively negative stance on the climate will influence the 72.5 million people who voted for him, at a time when it is more important than ever tỏ educate people about climate change and unite against the most signficant common cause facing humanity.
In addition, there is much anxiety that Trump will withdraw the US from crucial climate targets. In 2017, he tried to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, perhaps the most significant UN treaty on climate change. However, the agreement’s rules meant that countries could only withdraw a year after expressing their request to leave, meaning that the US didn’t formally withdraw until November 2020, a few months before Biden was elected, who promptly rejoined again. It is common knowledge that Donald Trump will seek to leave again during his second presidency, though there is also speculation that he may attempt to leave the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which would result in a complete break from participating in global UN efforts to address the emergency.
Trump is more passionate about low energy costs for consumers than the environmental implications [almost certainly for vote-winning reasons! Ed]. There have been significant reductions in the share prices of turbine manufacturers recently, due to concerns that after imposing high tariffs on China for electric cars and renewable energy products, such as wind turbines, Trump would scrap offshore wind initiatives altogether. Not only has he shown no interest in investing in green alternatives, but he has promised a new “drill, baby, drill” boom in oil and gas exploration and extraction.
However, there is some hope that Trump may not entirely slash green investment, with the International Energy Agency reporting that there is double the global investment in clean energy than in coal, oil and gas. If Trump blocked or handicapped this growing industry, it would damage the American economy in the long run by making it less adaptable to new industries. Also, Trump has received some backlash from his supporters for his hawkishness on green energy schemes; a recent study reported that 85 per cent of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which pumped money into green energy, has been used mainly in Republican states and districts, which are often on the frontline of the climate crisis.
America had little influence in COP29 – although Biden’s negotiators attended the talks in Azerbaijan, none of the agreements will be binding once Trump’s presidency starts, meaning the US will be Pretty much irrelevant in these essential talks. Once more, it will make it more difficult to hold other countries accountable for the pledges they have made, as they will no longer be able to make agreements with America in mind.
To summarise, Donald Trump’s presidency could not happen at a more important time to prioritise the environment and climate change. However, currently he seems apathetic to the issue, potentially at the expense of hundreds of thousands of people vulnerable to natural disaster whose future will rely on a strong climate change policy.