“Big Bill” Tilden – the 1920s equivalent of Roger Federer – said, “Never change a winning game; always change a losing one.” Almost always, that is sound advice – but not right now, not for Labour.
Labour won the general election, in no small measure due to their ‘small target’ strategy. But sticking to it in office could mean failure: for them and for the UK.
Having seen defeat in 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019, Labour understood that they could not afford to lose again in 2024. And that the UK could not afford another 5 years of right-wing government.
They could also see that the bulk of the UK media would do all in their power to ensure that they would lose again. So Labour came up with a small target strategy: avoid saying anything that could give red meat to the right-wing media. No radical ideas; nothing too progressive; no major spending commitments.
And they stuck to it with enough discipline to win the election.
It is very natural, and it would normally be right, to say that this strategy has worked well for them, and they should stick to it.
Natural but wrong:
- The far-right can still ensure that Labour fails – and they mean to do so;
- Labour plans to rebuild the UK, but cautiously and gradually, funded by growth in the economy – and their caution greatly increases the risk of failure;
- So, now is the time to ditch the small target strategy and tackle the country’s problems head-on.
Can the Right still make Labour fail?
Now Labour are in office and have a large majority, but the far-right has no intention of letting them succeed. As we wrote recently,
“For the Right, influencing Labour in office will, of course, be harder than influencing the Conservatives … [But] if you can get them to stick to their small-target strategy in office, their results will be a bitter disappointment.”
To avoid disappointment, Labour need to show people that their lives are improving – and that will not be easy.
Our public services are struggling and some are on the brink of serious failure – including the NHS; in virtually every industry, the regulators have been captured (eg Ofwat allowing huge dividends to be paid out while our rivers run with sewage); the cost-of-living crisis is unresolved and poverty is on the rise.
More broadly, our democracy is badly broken, with many of our democratic safeguards already removed. And we are one of few European countries without even the right to peaceful protest.
There is a lot to do, and the far-right mean to stop Labour from doing it. And when you consider the resources they have at their disposal, the seriousness of the threat becomes obvious.
Already, we have seen riots instigated by far-right media, social media and right-wing politicians. As we wrote at the time, the government’s law-and-order response was appropriate and necessary – but not by itself sufficient.
Labour plans to fix Britain, but cautiously and gradually, funded by growth in the economy
Labour is aware of the scale of the rebuilding that is needed. They have spoken of a decade of national renewal. But they are also sticking to their small target strategy, and avoiding topics like Brexit which they know will be weaponised against them.
Perhaps even more importantly, they are afraid that the right-wing media will question their economic rectitude. And reports suggest they are planning a Budget to cut spending and raise taxes because of the so-called ‘Fiscal black-hole.’ If true, the Budget will prevent the very growth which they have made the keystone of their five central missions: raising taxes will take money from the private sector (households and businesses) and reduce our ability to spend; and cutting government expenditure at the same time will further reduce demand. Without demand, businesses have no reason to invest. That is all the major sources of growth taken care of – in the wrong way.
This diagram is taken from our analysis of Hunt’s last Budget:
We wrote about that Budget,
“it will not deliver growth; it will not help ordinary people; it will not rebuild public services and it will not tackle the climate emergency.”
We do not want to reach the same conclusion about the next Budget, but the risk is that the diagram above, with perhaps a few modifications, will apply to Reeves’s first Budget.
We asked of Hunt’s Budget: “What would a responsible Chancellor have done? He would have boosted growth by tackling leakage and in that way started to tackle the nation’s problems.”
And we showed that the scale of the leakage is enormous.
That is not even a complete list – it does not for example include anything related to the previous government’s freeport schemes, which have not been yet fully investigated, nor ceasing to pay interest to banks on their full reserves at the Bank of England.
So there is enormous scope for a bold government to get its hands on more money.
More recently, we showed that Labour’s Fiscal Rules also do not prevent them from tackling the UK’s problems – as long as they do not interpret them as Hunt would have done.
So, if the reports are correct, Labour are about to reveal a Budget which will undermine their central mission.
Time to change strategy
Addressing the needs of the UK population demands bold action, which the far-right will oppose – and that includes most of our media. And so it means ditching the small-target strategy.
Admittedly, that is scary.
But, realistically, what has Labour to lose? Whereas Blair had a long media honeymoon; Starmer is already being attacked in the right-wing press. Would it really be much worse if Labour were investing a bit more and aggressively plugging the leakage?
Right now, Labour’s mandate is fresh. The cost-of-living crisis and the NHS are the two key issues voters want to see addressed. Growth is the key mission Labour has set itself.
And it is clear that Labour will not be able to address these challenges without ditching its small-target strategy.
Conclusion
In practice the choices Labour face amount to this:
- Be cautious and underdeliver – and get a worse press (by far) than the Conservatives got, even though your performance may be better, which is a route to being a one-term government;
- Be bold and tackle Britain’s problems – including lack of media regulation – while there is still time.
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