With some polls suggesting that the Lib Dems could push the Conservatives out if (a distant) second place, I asked Phil Moorhouse of popular YouTube channel ‘A Different Bias’ for his views on the matter.
Could the Tories come third?
PM: “Current polling suggests it’s unlikely…but only just. They are predicted to retain about 100 seats, but of those 100, only a couple of dozen will be held by a safe margin, so that 100 figure is quite shaky. I’ll be a bit cheeky and go for a 48 per cent probability that they’ll end up third!”
What are the implications for the country and for politics if the Lib Dems DO end up as the opposition?
PM: “For a start, the Tories won’t get on to every TV panel to spread their misinformation! But, as far as the operation of democracy and our parliament goes, the LibDems will be sitting at the despatch box. They will command most of the opposition day motions and, whilst a Tory opposition would be busy clutching their pearls and ‘opposing’ only for the benefit of donors and wealthy people who either don’t live in the UK or who have interests beyond our shores, the Lib Dems can be expected to be pushing Labour on action across a whole range of important issues – net zero, small businesses, our relationship with the EU, water cleanliness etc. They’ll be an altogether more positive and effective opposition for the country as a whole.
“In every major debate led by a secretary of state or a minister, the Lib Dems will be the ones who get to ask the main questions and to challenge; and whatever your particular party loyalty, I would say that the Lib Dems’ support derives from people from rural, urban and small business backgrounds who genuinely want what’s best for the country and who will want to hold the government to account – not to point-score, but because they want things to be better. Contrast that with the Conservatives who will use their position to favour their donors and to mislead and misinform the public with an eye to getting back into power in 2029.”
It could also make for a much better PMQs? Proper questions and proper answers, for a change? It would help to rebuild some respect for politicians.
PM: That could well be a side effect. Not that PMQs are that important, actually, except for the optics on the media. The Lib Dems would get 6 questions and the Conservatives only two, and it would certainly be a bit of a change if we got some actual answers!
And presumably what is left of the Conservative party will also be busy scrapping about who leads them next?
PM: “They are going to be in a chaotic state which will take years to sort. I reckon they’ll repeat the pattern of a series of unsuitable leaders. Whoever they pick, I can’t see them lasting a full parliament.
For the last ten years, they’ve focused all their efforts on whatever appears to hold the party together and benefit their backers and that will continue.”
Who do you reckon will be the new leader is, as predicted, Sunak loses his seat?
PM: “All the top contenders for the top job are in scraps for their own seats. Who will be left on July 5? It looks like the rump will be dominated by the far right, but who really knows what the balance of power will be?
“Of course, Badenoch is the bookies’ favourite, but she could be gone. If I was placing a bet, which I am not [Phil’s no Tory!!], I might actually say Priti Patel. She’s stepped away from the clown show and has spent far more time in her constituency. And she has been trying to build bridges with different factions and has the ‘benefit’ of the link to Johnson. But, like I say, it depends who is left and what sort of a mix there is in the membership.”
Let’s hope we get that Lib Dem opposition! 14 years of chaos and corruption from the Conservatives in government can’t be followed by 5 years of chaos and disruption in opposition. The country can’t take any more!
For daily updates on the political scene, take a look at ‘A Different Bias’ with Phil, who likes to talk about politics and knows his stuff, as 500,000 plus followers will attest!!
To find out which party is the tactical vote to oust the Conservatives and push them into third place, go to StopTheTories.vote. We can do this, but only if we go out and VOTE!
